Explaining Pakistan’s Premature Deindustrialization

Abstract

Recognizing that Pakistan faces premature deindustrialization, this paper seeks to explain the phenomenon. The country experienced wild swings in industrialization during the 1950s and 1960s. The period 2001–10 was characterized by fairly strong growth, followed by contractions in other periods. Pakistan’s manufacturing sector is dominated by clothing and textiles exports. Periods of manufacturing growth were associated with pro-manufacturing and import substitution policies, while slumps were characterized by deregulation and a relatively high exchange rate. The evidence shows that the relative stagnation of manufacturing (regardless of the policies implemented) can be explained by the lack of a dynamic industrial policy targeting technological catch-up and leapfrogging. Moreover, where rents were distributed in the form of incentives, there was no emphasis on monitoring and appraisal.