How did Supply and Demand Shocks Affect Industries and Occupations in COVID-19? Evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

This study examines the supply and demand shocks in Pakistan that affected occupations and industries during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use the remote labor index and essential scores for undertaking work activities from home across occupations proposed by del Rio-Chanona et al. (2020). To estimate demand shocks, we follow del RioChanona et al. (2020), who employed estimates from the US Congressional Budget Office (2006) that attempted to forecast how the US economy would be affected at the industry level if a severe influenza epidemic occurred. We document that demand shocks most significantly affect the transport and food services industries. In contrast, the manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and handicraft and printing industries are likely to be impacted by supply shocks. Food services and restaurants experience a bigger combined shock. Relative to the pre-pandemic period, aggregate shocks suggest a decrease in the output of Pakistan’s economy by one-fifth if the pandemic were to seriously affect the economy, threatening 21 percent of jobs and lowering total wage income by 18 percent. Considering a second wave and a new variant of coronavirus, we estimate that aggregate shocks may continue, and the economy's output could deteriorate by one-fourth if the region experiences a significant outbreak. Finally, we compare our findings with the US economy and find differences between supply and demand shocks in both economies