Internal Migration Patterns in Pakistan- The Case for Fiscal Decentralization,

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of social sector development on internal migration with a view to ascertaining its importance when formulating fiscal decentralization policies. In order to do so, the study looks at the patterns of migration in Pakistan which reveal that about 63%of the people who have migrated in the last ten years have moved to an urban area. Out of these, the majority (56%) moved to the provincial or the federal capital. No obvious pattern emerges in terms of the largest receiving districts and their HDI ranks. These hint at primarily economic incentives for migration outweighing the consideration individuals give to the degree of social sector development in these urban districts. Also, in some cases, high human or social development might have played a dual role by increasing the mobility of the people of smaller districts allowing them to migrate to the larger cities. Finally, regression analysis identifies economic opportunities and the degree of urbanization of the destination district as the most important pull factors for rural migrants. The overall results of the study suggest that migration is affected more by the economic pull and dynamism of the receiving districts rather than the provision of social amenities, or lack thereof. Therefore, if the provincial capitals continue to receive a disproportionately higher allocation of the respective provincial funds, it could lead to further disparities in the level of economic development within the provinces. Following the recent development with respect to decentralization, it is therefore recommended that the government should work towards diverting migrants away from provincial capitals and towards other potential urban cities.