Abstract:
We have used the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm to calculate the forward-looking consumer inflation expectation forward-lookingness. We have used DTW
instead of widely used parametric techniques as this algorithm does not require specific
assumptions relating to time series data. The results suggest that expectations are more
backward-looking from 2012 to 2022. Furthermore, we examined consumers' response to the exchange rate regime shift and found evidence of consumers becoming more forward-looking due to the deliberate change in policy stance from fixed to managed float. This suggests that changes in economic policy can directly impact the consumer's expectations formation process.
