Abstract:
This article aims at identifying the macroeconomic indicators that
account for the Argentine financial crisis. For this purpose, an early warning
system (EWS) is built based on a probit model that incorporates six monthly
variables spanning the time period between February 1991 and February
2000. The results indicate that the significant indicators are the consumer
price index and the ratio of the value of exports to the value of imports.
Results further indicate that the predictive power of the model is quite
reasonable with a correct prediction probability of 67 percent at 15 percent
cutoff level.
